AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY ON NIGERIA ECONOMY
ABSTRACT
This research work focus on econometric analysis of the impact of fiscal policy on Nigeria economy. The major objective is to identify the contribution of fiscal policy to Nigeria economic. Regression analysis was used in the cause of this study. Model was formulated to know the relationship between fiscal policy instrument and economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary data was used to ascertain the correlation between the gross domestic product and fiscal policy instrument.
The study discovered that gross domestic product have a significant relationship with fiscal policy instrument in Nigeria. And that, general price level, money supply and government expenditure contribute immensely to economic development of Nigeria. It's therefore pertinent that government should formula appropriate fiscal policy that will regulate price level, money supply and government expenditure In other to enhances economic development in Nigeria.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Title Page
Certification
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Abstract
Table of Content
CHAPTER ONE: BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of Problem
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Research Hypotheses
1.6 Research Methodology
1.7 Significance of the Study
1.8 Scope and Limitation of the Study
1.9 Definition of Terms I Concept
1.10 Organization of the Study
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Concept and Definition of Fiscal policy
2.3 Meaning and definitions of Inflation
2.3.1 Effect of Fiscal Policy in Controlling Inflation in Nigeria
2.4 Problems and Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Nigeria
2.5 Prospects and Solution to Fiscal Policy in Nigeria
CHAPTER THREE: THE STRUCTURE OF CAPITAL MARKET IN NIGERIA
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Intergenerational Equity and Fiscal Sustainability
3.3 Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Planning
3.4 Fiscal policy and the Real Economy
3.5 Constraints on Monetary Policy in Tackling Inflation
3.6 Options to Migrate Conflicts between Competing
Fiscal Objectives
3.7 Improving the Structure of Public Spending
3.8 Optimizing the Phrasing of Public Spending
3.9 Tightening Monetary Policy
CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS
4.1 Methodology
4.2 Methods of Estimation of Analysis
4.3 Model Specification
4.3.1 Econometric Model Specifications
4.3.2 A Priori Expectation
4.4 Specification of Data
4.4.1 Data for Regression Analysis
4.5 Empirical Results and Interpretation of the
Regression Result
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION
AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Summary of Findings
5.2 Recommendation
5.3 Conclusion
Bibliography
Appendix
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The economic policy of any country, be it developed, developing, even the underdeveloped countries requires some set of fundamental goals and objectives. Any attempt to undermine these presupposed fundamental aims, will in no small measure contribute to little or no tangible success achieved by the economy of the said country a However, proper developmental policies coupled with some set of targets formulated and well-implemented guarantees balanced and steady growth of the economy which consequently reflects positive changes in the social, cultural, political and economical lives of the people. It is worthy of note to say, that the emphasis given to the aims and objectives predetermined to be achieved, varies from country to country, but all will be included in the overall economy policies of the concerned country.
Although, there are various policies or means by which government tends to restructure, re-direct and maintain the continuous and steady growth development in the economy. The commonest among those policies are fiscal policy, Exchange rate policy, External trade policy, monetary policy, External debt management policy, public sector reform policy etc.
For the purpose of this research work, emphasis is placed to limit the study only on fiscal policy and its effects on real sector. Fiscal policy refers' to the manipulation of expenditure resources and taxation power by the government for the purpose of managing the economy. It is a measure on combination of measures designed to adjust and control the economy by regulating taxes and government finance.
The fiscal policies objectives are however achieved through various means. These means range from reduction in government and operating a budget surplus for effect if the federal budget is balanced increase or decrease in taxation, internal and external borrowing, printing money" drawing from the country's past reserve and so on. This is aimed at influencing economic activities in a desired direction and to achieve some specified macro-economic policy objectives. For the purpose of this research work, emphasis is placed to limit the study only on fiscal policy and its effects on real sector.
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
It is an undisputable fact that the main objectives of any country is to achieve growth in the real sector which transcend into improvement in the standard of living of the people. To this end, efforts are made to maintain effectiveness of its fiscal policy. This study, however, seeks to address the effect of fiscal policy on Nigeria economy and how it has enhanced development of Nigeria economy.
1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of fiscal policy on Nigeria economy.
To examine impact of fiscal policy on the general prices level To determine effect of fiscal policy on the level of money supply To exchange the role of fiscal policy on the government expenditures
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTION
In order to achieve the objective of this research study, the research study will attempt to provide answers to the following research questions.
To what extent is fiscal policy implementation have been able to affect the economy of Nigeria? Does the fiscal policy affect the level of money supply? To what extent is time lag in fiscal policy implementation detrimental in affect the real sector in Nigeria? What are the best way in which the fiscal policy implementation will affect the real sector economy positively?
1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
1. Ho: there is no significant relationship between fiscal policy on the general price level
Hi: there is significant relationship between fiscal policy on the general price level
2. Ho: there is no significant relationship between fiscal policy and money supply
Hi: there is significant relationship between fiscal policy and money supply
3. Ho: there is no significant relationship between fiscal policy and the government expenditure
Hi: there is significant relationship between fiscal policy and the government expenditure
1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research method to be used is the econometrics analysis to test for the relationship between dependent and independent variables. This will involve multiple regression analysis. Secondary data will be employed which is sources through CBN publication F.O.S e.t.c the model specification are as follows;
:. GDP = = bo + blPRC + b2xMSC + b3GEX + b4TAX+ u
Where,
Y= GDP (Gross Domestic product at market price); Dependent variable.
X1 = Price level: Independent variables
X2 = Money supply; Independent variables
X3 = Government expenditure: Independent variable
X4 = Tax: Independent variable
bo = constant term
b1 = Coefficient of parameter X1
b2 = Coefficient of parameter X2
b3 = Coefficient of parameter X3
b4 = Coefficient of parameter X4
u = Error of stochastic term
SOURCES OF DATA:
For the purpose of this research, Secondary data will be utilized which will cut across 30 years i.e. from 1980 to 2009, the major sources of data and information will be from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) various publications and statically bulletin of ministry of finance.
1.7 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
It is never an overstatement to say that fiscal policy is one of the most effective policy measures used in directing an economy. However, the main significance of this study is that, the research work after completion will be useful to individuals, firms, parastatals and the Nigerian economy in its entirety.
1.8 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
Scope: The study will cover the trend in debt procurement from time to time of oil boom of the 1980's to 2009. The study will also cover consequences of debt on the economy as well as debt management strategies that have been used by debt manager, their failure and further recommendations. The study will likewise cover some growth theories in explaining the concept of economic growth. Furthermore, the problem of fiscal policy will also be reviewed in the study.
Limitation: this study is limited to Nigeria economic alone. Also 20year data will used to really know the effect of fiscal policy on Nigeria economic on the economic and how it has enhanced the economic development.
Time & Cost: Is very precious, this study will be limited to available information within the reasonable time also the problem of finance in. this regard.
1.9 THE DEFINITION OF TERMS/CORCEPT
GDP-Gross Domestic Product
CBN- Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin
F.O.S- Federal Office of Statistic
1.10 OROABIZATIOR OF THE STUDY
This study will comprise of five chapters. Chapter one will be the introduction part which will comprise of what exactly the topic is about. Chapter two will be the literature review to show the difference and diversity of view on e subjects and to act as a guide, Chapter three will consist of structural composition of the effectiveness of fiscal policy of Nigerian economy. Chapter four will illustrate the research methodology. Data analysis and interpretation of the results. Chapter five, summarizes the findings, recommendation and conclusion.
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