THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE NIGERIA ECONOMIC GROWTH
ABSTRACT:
Exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. Exchange rates this exchange rate is also used to determine the level of output growth of the country. Over the years, Nigeria has adopted various exchange rate regime ranging research work is centered on the impact of exchange rate on the Nigeria economic growth with special emphasis on the purchasing power of the average Nigeria and the level of international trade transaction. To do this, the classical linear regression model is applied and the ordinary least square econometric technique is also used to estimate the impact of exchange rate on economic growth. The variables used are GDP and non-oil export as the dependent variables, real exchange rates interest rates, inflation rate and degree of trade openness as the independent variables.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page- - - - - - - - - - i
Approval page - - - - - - - - ii
Dedication -- - - - - - - - - iii
Acknowledgement - - - - - - - iv
Abstract - - - - - - - - - v
Table of content - - - - - - - - vi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction - - - - - - - - 1
1.1 Background of the Study - - - - - - - 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem - - - - - - 4
1.3 Research question - - - - - - - 5
1.4 Objective of the study-- - - - - - - 6
1.5 Research Hypothesis- - - - - - - 6
1.6 Scope of the Study- - - - - - - - 6
1.7 Significance of the Study- - - - - - - 7
1.8 Limitation of the Study- - - - - - - 8
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature Review- - - - - - - - 9
2.1 Determinants of the Nigerians Exchange Rate - - - - - - - - - 9
2.1.1 Foreign Exchange Rate, Export Performanceand Economic Growth-- - - - - 11
2.1.2 The purchasing Power Parity Theory- - - - 13
2.1.3 Theoretical Issues-- - - - - - - 16
2.1.4 The Traditional Flow Model- - - - - - 17
2.1.5 The Elasticity Approach- - - - - - 18
2.1.6 The Monetary Approach- - - - - - 20
2.1.7 The Portfolio Balance Model- - - - - - 22
2.2 Empirical Literature- - - - - - - 26
2.3 Limitations of Previous Studies- - - - - 33
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Research Methodology- - - - - - - 36
3.1 Model Specification- - - - - - - 36
3.2 Method of Data Analysis- - - - - - - 38
3.3.1 Economic Criteria- - - - - - - 39
3.3.2 Statistical test (first order)- - - - - - 40
3.3.3 Econometric (second order test)- - - - - 4
3.4 Nature and Source of Data- - - - - - 43
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 Presentation and Analysis of Result- - - - - 44
4.1 Presentation of Results- - - - - - - 44
4.2 Result Interpretation- - - - - - - 46
4.2.1. Analysis of Result based on Economic Criteria- - - 46
4.2.1.2 Analysis based on the A priori Criteria - - - 48
4.2.2 Analysis based on statistical Criteria - - - - 49
4.2.2.1 The Coefficient of multiple Determination - - 49
4.2.2.2 The t-test Statistics- - - - - - - 49
4.2.2.3 The f-statistics Test- - - - - - - 51
4.2.3 Analysis based on Econometric Criteria- - - - 53
4.2.3.1 Test of Autocorrelation- - - - - - 53
4.2.3.2 Normality Test- - - - - - - - 54
4.2.3.3 Heteroscedasticity Test- - - - - - 55
4.2.3.4 Multicollinearity Test- - - - - - - 56
4.3 Evaluation of Research Hypothesis- - - - - 58
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Policy Recommendation 59
5.1 Summary of Findings- - - - - - - - 59
5.2 Conclusion- - - - - - - - - - 60
5.3 Policy Recommendation- - - - - - - - 61
Bibliography- - - - - - - - - - 63
Journals- - - - - - - - - - - 64
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
A country foreign exchange policy is derived from the perceives overall economic objectives to achieve and the expected direction of growth (CBN, 2003). Consequently, non conflicting sectoral policies are conceived within the ambit of the overall policy framework such that each sectoral policy reinforces each other.
A simplest definition has it that exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another. Thus, it measures the worth of a domestic economy in terms of another economics (Obeski, 1998).
Exchange rates regularly quoted between all major currencies mostly that of the trading partners, but frequently one important currency (that is the dollar) is used as a standard in which to express and compare all rates.
It is one of the key tools in economic management and in the stabilization and adjusts policies in developing countries. Exchange rates policies play a vital role in determine the position of a country in terms of international competition.
In autonomous markets, the exchange rate was seen to be volatile, and depreciated at will. This exerted pressure on the official foreign exchange market, and made the monetary policy target of the period to continually unrealistic due to the inflationary financing of government deficit with the deregulation of the economy; a market-based framework for the determination of exchange rate was adopted. It was envisaged that the realization of macroeconomic stability would lead to the elimination of distortions in the external sector and this enhance growths, stimulate non oil exports, increase foreign exchange inflows, moderate demand pressure in the foreign exchange market and generally improve foreign exchange to eliminate the parallel market premium capital flight and also enhance the inflow of foreign investigation (CBN: 2003).
From the forgoing it becomes clear that the concept of exchange rate policies has the impact so as to show in the one of the macroeconomic variables, it contribute to economic growth of Nigeria. It is therefore necessary that a research work be carried out to this effect so as to provide suggestion that will served as a guide towards the actualization of macroeconomic objectives that will bring about the level of targeted economic growth in Nigeria.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
1. Should the range be decided in advance?
1.3 RESEARCH QUESTION
1. What is the impact of exchange rate on Nigeria’s economic growth?
1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objectives of the study are to determine the impact of exchange rate on the growth of the country.
1. To estimate the impact o exchange rate on Nigeria’s economic growth
1.5 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
Based on the objectives of the study, the following hypothesis were formulated.
1. HO: exchange rate has no significant impact on Nigeria’s economic growth
1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This research work is designed to cover the period 1980-2010, a period of thirty one years. The general overview of the profile of Nigerians exchange rate over the years shall be discussed. The scope consist of the regulatory and
deregulatory exchange rate period that is the fixed exchange rate and the floating exchange rate period. The study is based on core macro-economic performance of Nigeria between 1980-2015.
1.7 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The significance of this study lies on the recommendations made at the end of the following:
1. Importer who make payment in foreign currencies.
2. Policy makers of the central bank of Nigeria who issues the guideline government international trade practice.
3. Bank-especially the commercial banks and merchant banks.
4. The general public who has a right contribute and be informed of the activities our banking institutions.
It is hoped that findings and recommendations of this study will adequately benefit the various interest groups named above.
1.8 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
During the course of this research the researcher experience a number limitation constrains.
The researcher was faced with already known problem of gathering material from the Nigeria organization. Almost every information is classified and therefore most of the companies and banks approached were weary of releasing financial information related to the topic.
Gathering of information from public organization such as federal ministry of finance, federal of statistics and central bank of Nigeria was also difficult.
.