COMMERCIAL BANKS’ INVESTMENT IN LOANS AND TREASURY BILLS AND THEIR OVERALL PROFITABILITY


COMMERCIAL BANKS’ INVESTMENT IN LOANS AND TREASURY BILLS AND THEIR OVERALL PROFITABILITY 

ABSTRACT 

Investigating  the  determinants of  profitability  of  commercial banks has been one of  the 

more  popular  topics  among  researchers  in  banking  studies.  Hence,  to  contribute  to  the 

existing knowledge, this study sought to analyze the extent to which investment in loans 

and  treasury  bills  influence  the  overall  profitability  of  commercial  banks  in  Uganda, 

using  a  data  set  comprising  95  observations  for  15  commercial  banks  over  the  period 

1998-2005.  The  study  used  a  longitudinal  research  design,  based  on  quantitative  data 

generated through document analysis of commercial banks’ monthly reports and returns 

to  Bank  of  Uganda.  Overall  Profitability  was  measured  using  two  profitability  ratios 

namely:  Return  on  Assets  (ROA)  and  Return  on  Equity  (ROE)  while  the  independent 

variables included: volume of loans, volume of TBs, lending rates and yield on TBs.  

The study found Volume of Loans and TBs having a positive correlation while Lending 

Rates and average yields on TBs revealed negative correlation with ROA as an element 

of the dependent variable. With regard to ROE, Loan Volume, Lending rates and Volume 

of TBs showed a positive relationship while average yields on TBs indicated a negative 

correlation  with  this  element  of  the  dependent  variable.  However,  in  the  two  analyses, 

commercial banks’ investment volume in loans was found to be the only variable that had 

a statistically significant influence in accounting for profitability of commercial banks in 

Uganda.  On  the  basis  of  the  findings,  it  was  recommended  that  commercial  Banks  in 

Uganda  should  aim  at  committing  themselves  to  the  implementation  of  strategies  that 

would  enhance  credit  creation  and  disbursement  while  ensuring  adequate  recovery  

mechanisms.  It was  also proposed  that additional  efforts  should be put  in educating  the 

clientele about the banks’ loan products and prudent borrowing practices.  

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

DECLARATION ................................................................................................................... ii 

APPROVAL .......................................................................................................................... iii 

DEDICATION ...................................................................................................................... iv 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.....................................................................................................v 

TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... vi 

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... ix 

ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................x 

CHAPTER ONE .....................................................................................................................1 

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................1 

1.1 Background to the study ....................................................................................................1 

1.2 Statement of the problem ...................................................................................................5 

1.3 Purpose of the study ...........................................................................................................6 

1.4 Objectives of the study.......................................................................................................6 

1.5 Hypotheses ..........................................................................................................................6 

1.6 Scope of the study ..............................................................................................................7 

1.6.1 Subject scope ...................................................................................................................7 

1.6.2 Geographical scope .........................................................................................................7 

1.6.3 Time scope .......................................................................................................................7 

1.7 Significance of the study....................................................................................................8 

1.8 Conceptual framework .......................................................................................................9 

1.10 Structure of the study .................................................................................................... 10 

CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................. 12  

LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................................. 12 

2.0 Introduction .....................................................................................................................12 

2.1 Volume of investment in loans and profitability of commercial banks ....................... 12 

2.2 Relationship between lending rates and the profitability of commercial banks.......... 17 

2.3 Relationship between investment in Treasury bills and commercial banks’ 

profitability ..........................................................................................................................21 

2.4 Yield on TBs and commercial banks profitability ........................................................ 25 

2.5 Commercial banks Profitability...................................................................................... 26 

METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 30 

4.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 30 

4.1 Research design ............................................................................................................... 30 

4.2 Population and Sample ................................................................................................... 30 

4.3 Data source and collection .............................................................................................. 31 

4.4 Measurement of variables ............................................................................................... 31 

4.5 Empirical Estimation Model and analysis ..................................................................... 32 

4.6 Problems encountered during data collection................................................................ 33 

CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................... 34 

DATA PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS .................................. 34 

4.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 34 

Table 4.2: Estimation results using ROA as the dependent variable ................................. 37 

4.2.1 Relationship between the volume of commercial banks’ investment in loans and 

their overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE .......................................................... 37  

4.2.2 Relationship between commercial banks’ lending rates and their overall profitability 

in terms of ROA and ROE .................................................................................................... 39 

4.2.3 Relationship between the volume of commercial banks’ investment in TBs and their 

overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE .................................................................. 42 

4.2.4 Relationship between commercial banks’ yields from TBs and their overall 

profitability in terms of ROA and ROE ............................................................................... 43 

4.2.5 Model Prediction .......................................................................................................... 43 

SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................. 45 

5.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 45 

5.1 Summary……………………………………………………………………………. 45 

52. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...46 

5.3 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 47 

5.4 Areas for further research ............................................................................................... 47 

REFERENCES .................................................................................................................... 49 

APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................... 56 

Appendix A: Introductory letters.......................................................................................... 56 

Appendix B: Dataset ............................................................................................................. 58 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................................... 35 

Table 4.2: Estimation results using ROA as the dependent variable ................................. 37 

Table 4.3: Estimation results using ROE as the dependent variable .................................. 37  

CHAPTER ONE 

INTRODUCTION 

1.1 Background to the study 

Due to the crucial roles that banks hold in the financial sector, this research evaluates the 

profitability  of  the  commercial  banks  in  Uganda.  The  performance  evaluation  of 

commercial  banks  is  especially  important  today  because  of  the  fierce  competition  and 

globalisation  of  world  economies.  Evaluation  of  banks’  performance  is  important  for: 

depositors,  shareholders,  investors,  bank  managers  and  regulators.  In  a  competitive 

financial  market,  bank  performance  provides  signals  to  depositors  and  investors  with 

regard  to  whether  to  invest  or  withdraw  funds  from  the  bank  (Abdus  &  Kabir  2000). 

Similarly, it flashes direction to bank managers whether to improve its deposit service or 

loan  service  or  both,  to  improve  its  performance.  For  that  reason,  identifying  the  key 

success factors of commercial banks enables the design of policies that may improve the 

profitability of the banking industry (Buyinza, 2010). 

The importance of bank profitability  can be  appraised  at  the micro  and macro  levels of 

the  economy.  At  the  micro  level,  profit  is  the  essential  prerequisite  of  a  competitive 

banking  institution  and  the  cheapest  source  of  funds.  Indeed,  without  profits,  any  firm 

cannot attract outside capital (Gitman, 2007). Thus, profits play a key role in persuading 

depositors  to  supply  their  funds on  advantageous  terms.  By  reducing  the probability  of 

financial  trouble,  impressive  profits  figures  also  help  reassure  a  bank’s  other 

stakeholders,  viz:  investors,  borrowers,  managers,  employees,  external  product  and 

service suppliers, and regulators (Anyanwaokoro, 1996). It is not merely a result, but also  

a  necessity  for  successful  banking  in  a  period  of  growing  competition  in  financial 

markets.  Hence,  the  basic  aim  of  a  bank’s  management  is  to  achieve  a  profit,  as  the 

essential requirement for conducting any business (Bobakova, 2003).  

In  Uganda,  after  a  long  period  of  economic,  financial  management  and  political 

instability, in 1987 the government adopted a rehabilitation and recovery programme to 

rebuild  the  economy  and  restore  macroeconomic  stability  under  the  auspices  of  the 

International  Monetary  Fund,  the  World  Bank  and  the  donor  community  at  large. 

Financial  sector  reforms  in  Uganda  were  implemented  as  part  of  the  stabilisation  and 

beginning  in  1990,  a  number  of  reforms  were  implemented  in  the  financial  sector  in 

order to achieve the main goals of increased efficiency and financial deepening. During 

this  period  however,  developments  in  the  financial  system  were  disappointing  and  in 

view of this, Nanyonjo (2001) argues that bank restructuring did not yield the expected 

results.  According  to  her,  despite  some  improvement,  the  quality  of  commercial  bank 

assets remained weak during the post reform period. By the end of June 1997, about 30 

percent  of  all  commercial  bank  loans  in  Uganda  were  non-performing.  This  not  only 

reflected weak management and procedures, but also poor credit discipline. In addition, 

profitability  of  several  banks  deteriorated  during  the  same  period  which  Nanyonjo 

(2001)  attributes  to  the  presence  of  non-performing  loans  in  bank  portfolio.  This 

indicator showed some worrisome signs, and hinted a progressive deterioration of bank 

soundness.  As  a  result,  several  banks  indeed  experienced  solvency  and  liquidity 

problems  and  were  closed  down  during  the  1998/1999  financial  year.  Therefore, 

although  the  Government  of  Uganda  through  the  Central  Bank  has  often  sought  for  

permanent measures that would enhance the profitability and stability of banks operating 

in the Uganda’s banking industry, if the historical antecedents of financial sector reforms 

are anything to go by; they have not completely succeeded in achieving this feat. Against 

this  backdrop,  the  broad  aim  of  this  study  was  to  identify,  on  the  basis  of  empirical 

evidence,  significant  determinants  of  bank  profitability  in  Uganda.  However,  its  scope 

was delimited  to volume of investment  loans  and treasury  bills, lending  rates  and  yield 

on treasury bills as determinants of bank profitability. 

As  postulated  by  intermediation  theories,  Loans  are  the  traditional  business  of 

commercial banks. However,  in the case of  Uganda’s banking  industry, the experiences 

of the last two decades appear to have negatively impacted on this role. In the 1980s and 

1990s, the  industry was  riddled with high  levels of  Non Performing Assets (NPA). The 

ratio  of  NPA  to  total  loans  fluctuated  between  26%  and  39%  between  1995  and  1999 

(Bank of Uganda (BOU) Annual Supervision Report, 1999). As a result, many banks re-designed  their  investment  portfolio.  They  turned  to  other  safer  alternative  investments 

than lending, such as the Treasury Bills (TBs). As a result, commercial banks investment 

in TBs grew by 417% between 1995 and 1999 (BOU Annual Supervision Report, 1999), 

compared  to  growth  in  loans  of  40%  for  the same  period.  Financial sector  reforms  and 

aggressive  loan  recovery  efforts  resulted  into  substantial  reduction  of  the  NPAs  from 

7.2%  in  2003  to  2.2%  in  2004  (BOU  Annual  Supervision  Report,  2004).  Nonetheless, 

commercial  banks’  balance  sheets  reflect  a  strong  preference  for  liquid  and  low-risk 

assets, which has implications for their soundness and overall profitability  (Tumusiime- 

Mutebile, 2005).   

Thus,  the  conventional  wisdom  in  the  Ugandan  banking  industry  is  that  investment  in 

TBs  is  an  alternative source of  risk  free  income.  TBs  are  a  short-term  monetary  policy 

instrument used by BOU  to control liquidity in  the  economy.  However, it  is  also a  risk 

free asset for investors, attracting commercial banks to use it as an alternate investment to 

loans. As at December 2003, the volume of commercial banks investment in TBs stood at 

Shs 886 billion, exceeding the volume of loans for the same period, which stood at Shs 

847 billion (BOU (Annual Supervision Reports, December  2003).  

The  Yield  on  a  TB  is  a  function  of  the  interest  rate,  amount  invested  and  its  maturity 

period. The interest rate on TBs and hence the Yield is volatile. For example, BOU uses 

bi-monthly  auctions  to  sell  TBs.  A  Reference  rate  is  computed  for  each  Auction  as  a 

moving  average  rate  for  the  last  three  consecutive  auctions,  based  on  the  91-  Day  TB.  

The  average  TB  reference  rate  was  7.72%  during  the  Financial  Year  (FY)  1998/99, 

sharply  rose  to  19.28%  in  FY  1999/00,  dropped  to 5.33%  in  FY  2001/02  and  hiked  to 18.58% in  FY 2002/03  (BOU Annual Report, 2002/2003).  On the other hand,  the  yield 

from traditional lending activities is a function of the lending rate and the amount loaned. 

The weighted average lending rate of commercial banks for the five year period between 

FY 1998/99 and 2002/03 varied within a range of 22.96% as the highest in FY 1998/99 

and 17.57% as the lowest in FY 2001/02 (BOU Annual Report, 2002/2003). The lending 

rate is thus stable compared to the interest rates on TBs.   

The  overall  profitability  of  an  investment  is  established  using  return  on  investment 

ratios, which gives an indication of a business firm’s efficiency of operation (Van Horne, 

1980).  Profitability  ratios  include  the  Return  on  Assets  (ROA)  and  return  on  Equity 

(ROE).   ROA  compares net profits after taxes  to total  assets;  while ROE compares net 

profits  after  taxes  to  the  Net  Worth  of  the  firm.    ROA  and  ROE  for  the  commercial 

banking  industry has been  fluctuating over  the  years. For  example,  the  industry’s  ROA 

was 4.21% in the year 2000, but had declined to 2.7% by 2002. ROE stood at 45.10% in 

2000,  rose  to  50.85% in  2001,  fell  to  24.4%  in 2002  and  in 2004,  had  risen  to  37.4%. 

(BOU Annual Supervision report, 2004). 

1.2 Statement of the problem 

Commercial  banks  in  Uganda  are  increasingly  investing  in TBs  as  an  alternate  asset to 

loans.  Volume  of  investment  in  TBs  grew  by  417%  over  the  period  1995  -  1999, 

compared  to  growth  of  40%  in  loans over  the same  period,  and  in  2002  and 2003,  the 

volume  of  TBs  exceeded  that of  loans.    Conversely,  the  average TB  reference  rate  was 

7.72%  during  the  Financial  Year  (FY)  1998/99  and  sharply  rose  to  19.28%  in  FY 

1999/00; while the weighted average lending rate of commercial banks for the five year 

period between FY 1998/99 and 2002/03 varied within a range of 22.96% as the highest 

in FY 1998/99 and 17.57% as the lowest in FY 2001/02.  

 Although  commercial  banks  have  relatively  increased  their  investment  in  TBs  as  an 

alternate  investment  to their  traditional business of  extending  loans,  there  is  absence of 

systematic  understanding  of  how  this  is  associated  with  the  overall  profitability  of  the  

banks as measured in terms of ROA and ROE. This study therefore set out to analyze the 

extent to which commercial bank’s volume of investment in loans and associated lending 

rates  and  volume  of  investment  in  TBs  and  associated  yields  influences  the  overall 

profitability of commercial banks in Uganda 

1.3 Purpose of the study 

The study sought to establish the relationship between volume of investment in loans and 

associated  lending  rates  and  volume  of  investment  in TBs  and  associated  yields on  the 

overall profitability of commercial banks as measured in terms of ROA and ROE. 

1.4 Objectives of the study 

i.  To  establish  the  relationship  between  the  volume  of  commercial  banks’ 

investment in loans and their overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE 

ii.  To  establish  the  relationship between commercial  banks’  lending  rates  and  their 

overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE 

iii.  To  establish  the  relationship  between  the  volume  of  commercial  banks’ 

investment in TBs and their overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE 

iv.  To  establish  the  relationship  between  commercial  banks’  yields  from  TBs  and 

their overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE 

1.5 Hypotheses 

1.  The  volume  of  investment  in  loans  affects  the  overall  profitability  of  commercial 

banks in terms of ROA and ROE  

2.  Lending  rates  impinge  on  the  overall  profitability  Commercial    banks  in  terms  of 

ROA and ROE 

3.  Volume  of    investment  in  TBs  influences  the  overall  profitability  of  commercial 

banks in terms of ROA and ROE 

4.  The  yield    from  TB  investments  has  an  effect  on  the  overall  profitability  of 

commercial banks in terms of ROA and ROE 

1.6 Scope of the study 

1.6.1 Subject scope 

The researcher studied the overall profitability of  commercial banks in Uganda in terms 

of ROE and ROA. The study  covered commercial banks  volume of  investment in  loans 

and  associated  lending  rates  and  volume of  investment  in  TBs  and  associated  yields  as 

variables that affect the overall profitability of commercial banks. All commercial banks 

licensed in Uganda as at 31st December 2004 were studied.  

1.6.2 Geographical scope 

The  Geographical  area  of  the  study  covered  Kampala  city  only,  since  all  commercial 

banks  have  their  head  offices  in  Kampala.  The  study  covered  a  period  of  eight  years, 

from 1998 to 2005.  

1.6.3 Time scope  

The time scope of the study was spread over eight years starting from 1998 to 2005. The 

data  was  collected  from  all  commercial  banks  that  were  licensed  in  Uganda  as  at  31st 

December 2004.   

1.7 Significance of the study 

The findings were helpful in identifying some of  the determinants of banks profitability 

in Uganda and therefore provide vital information to bank managers, for the development 

of  effective  strategies  for  enhanced  performance.  Profitability  of  banks  impacts  on 

financial  sector  soundness  and  stability.  The  study  therefore  has  important  policy 

implications  that  may  help  banking sector  regulatory  authorities  in  Uganda  to  come up 

with  future  policies  and  regulations  for  improving  and  sustaining  the  banking  industry 

soundness and stability.  

The outcomes of the study may also serve as useful pointers to macroeconomic issues for 

further investigation by Uganda’s economic authorities.  

Thirdly, though similar studies have been conducted elsewhere (such as Athanasoglou et 

al.,  2005),  the  United  States  of  America  (Berger  et  al.,  1987;  Berger,  1995b  and 

Angbazo,  1997),  Tunisia  (Naceur  and  Goaied,  2001  and  Naceur,  2003)  and  Colombia 

(Barajas  et  al.,  1999),  there  is  no  econometric  study  to  our  knowledge  that  has 

exclusively  examined  determinants  of  bank  profitability  within  the  Ugandan  context; 

therefore the present study fills an important gap in the existing literature and improve the 

understanding of bank profitability in Uganda.   

1.8 Conceptual framework 

Relationships  between  Uganda’s  Commercial  banks’  investment  portfolio  in  loans 

and TBs and the overall profitability of the banks in terms of ROE and ROA 

There is a relationship between the volume  and associated  return of commercial banks’ 

assets and the overall profitability of the banks as measured in terms of ROE and ROA.  

Commercial  banks  may  invest  in  either  loans  or  TBs  as  alternate  investment  options. 

Loans  and  TBs  as  alternate  commercial  bank  assets  have  different  risk  and  return 

profiles. Therefore, Commercial banks ‘ volume of loans and associated lending rates and 

volume  of  TBs  and  the  associated  yields  should  have  a  relationship  with  the  overall 

profitability  of  the  commercial  banks  in  terms  ROA  and  ROE.  This  hypothesis  draws 

insights  from  portfolio  theories  (modern  and  classical),  which  analyze  the  risk-reward 

characteristics  of  investment  portfolios.  The  conceptual  framework  below  builds  upon 

this  literature  to  develop  a  model  to  evaluate  the  effect  of  commercial  banks  asset 

allocations  in  volume  of  loans  and  associated  lending  rates,  and  volume  of  TBs  and 

associated yields, on commercial banks’ overall profitability in terms of ROA and ROE. 

For  simplicity,  the  model  focuses  on  only  establishing  relationships  among  the  above 

named variables. 

Conceptual Framework 

Commercial banks’ investment in loans and TBs and their overall profitability in 

Uganda 

Source: Variables developed from literature review are based on the works of De Young 

&  Karin  (1999);  Wang  J.C.  (2003);  De  Young  &  Rice  (2003);  Allen  &  Santomero 

(1996), Smith et al (2003), Van Horne (1980) and others.  

1.10  Structure of the study 

To achieve  its broad aim,  the study is organized into  five chapters and organized in  the 

following  manner.  Chapter  one  provides  the  introduction,  including:  background  to  the 

study, Statement of the problem, purpose and objectives of the study, research hypotheses 

significance of  the  study,  scope  and  the  conceptual  framework.  Chapter  two  provides  a 

Commercial Banks 

investment in Treasury 

Bills 

  Volume  

  Yield  

Commercial banks 

investment in loans 

  Volume 

  Lending rate 

Overall Profitability of 

Commercial Banks 

  Return on Asset 

(ROA) 

  Return on Equity 

(ROE) 

Confounding variables 

  Inflation 

  Exchange rates 

  Political stability 

  Other Investments 

  Management  

review  of  the  relevant  literature  on  related  topics  while  chapter  three  outlines  the 

methodology  and  tools  used  in  the  study.  Chapter  four  provides  the  analysis, 

interpretation and discussion of the findings. Lastly, chapter five contains a summary of 

findings, conclusions, recommendations and areas of further research. 

.

COMMERCIAL BANKS’ INVESTMENT IN LOANS AND TREASURY BILLS AND THEIR OVERALL PROFITABILITY



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